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Frontier Prince

5yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 114

Perth · Lord Mansfield Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 35y

#9

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got off the mark in a Chepstow novice last October and plenty of good efforts in handicaps since. Things didn't go right for him in the Swinton last time and worth treating as if still in form. Might prove the answer.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength49%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Aintree 05/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 117 · 2m209y Gd 150 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/04/2025 · OR 117 par5/041OR 1174 @ Uttoxeter 03/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m7f168y Gd 1544 @ Chepstow 10/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 2m11y GS 15310/1043 @ Cheltenham 14/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 118 · 2m87y Sft 162 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 118 par4 @ Huntingdon 22/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 119 · 1m7f171y GS 165 · below its mark22/12/2025 · OR 119 par22/124OR 1194 @ Kempton 02/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 118 · 2m Goo 166 · below its mark02/02/2026 · OR 118 par2 @ Kelso 28/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 117 · 2m4f189y GS 152 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 117 par28/022OR 1172 @ Haydock 04/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 116 · 1m7f144y Goo 148 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 116 par1 @ Haydock 09/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 116 · 1m7f144y Goo 143 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 116 par9/051OR 116projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-09Haydock112th8th+3
2026-04-04Haydock24th2nd+2
2026-02-28Kelso23rd1st+2
2026-02-02Kempton43rd3rd0
2025-12-22Huntingdon45th5th0
2025-11-14Cheltenham33rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0414/1128/029/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength55%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20257th33/10%57%+0.57
03/05/20252nd3/184%88%+0.03
10/10/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
14/11/20253rd10/147%86%+0.38
22/12/20255th2/189%33%-0.56
02/02/20263rd3/184%78%-0.06
28/02/20263rd11/271%71%+0.00
04/04/20264th17/255%70%+0.15
09/05/202612th20/10%27%+0.27