Letterston Lily
6yo Mare · 12-2 · OR 122
Perth · Lord Mansfield Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 35y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Worcester | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Market Rasen | 2 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Perth | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-11-15 | Cheltenham | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2024-10-25 | Cheltenham | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2024-10-12 | Chepstow | 2 | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 20/07/2024 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 28/08/2024 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 27/09/2024 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 25/10/2024 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 15/11/2024 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/07/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 42% | -0.35 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |