12
O'Faolains Glory
9yo Mare · 10-8 · OR 100
Perth · Lord Mansfield Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 35y
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Carlisle | 2 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-02-01 | Musselburgh | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Musselburgh | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Musselburgh | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Hexham | 4 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 10-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 27/08/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 79% | +0.52 |
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 22/12/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 01/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 22/03/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 15/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |