9
Rauzan
6yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 106
Perth · Lord Mansfield Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 35y
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Cartmel | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Cartmel | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Cartmel | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Cartmel | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Kelso | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Carlisle | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/12/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 21/01/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 20/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 38% | -0.18 |
| 28/06/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 30% | +0.25 |
| 18/07/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |