8
Summergrounds
10yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 106
Perth · Lord Mansfield Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 35y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Perth | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Bangor-on-Dee | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Ayr | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-01 | Musselburgh | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Sedgefield | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/2025 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 15/05/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 90% | +0.74 |
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 26/12/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 01/02/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |