Bathgate
6yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 112
Perth · Bet With The Dewhurst Ring Handicap Hurdle · 2m 47y
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Kelso | 2 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-02-24 | Catterick | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-09 | Catterick | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Catterick | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Musselburgh | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-05 | Sedgefield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 04/12/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 05/12/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 22/12/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 21/01/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 09/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 24/02/2026 | 6th | 16/5 | 83% | 29% | -0.55 |
| 21/03/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |