Caballo De Guerra
5yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 115
Perth · Bet With The Dewhurst Ring Handicap Hurdle · 2m 47y
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Ayr | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kelso | 1 | 5th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-01-17 | Haydock | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Wetherby | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Cheltenham | 2 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-10-05 | Kelso | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2024 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 21/01/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 82% | -0.01 |
| 22/03/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 06/12/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 77% | -0.06 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 57% | +0.52 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |