10
El Jefe
9yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 100
Perth · Bet With The Dewhurst Ring Handicap Hurdle · 2m 47y
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Ayr | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Ayr | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Kelso | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Ayr | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Haydock | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
Delivery trend -7.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 24/04/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 12/11/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 24/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 29/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 13/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 23/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 07/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |