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7yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 110
Perth · Bet With The Dewhurst Ring Handicap Hurdle · 2m 47y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
82%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Perth | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Perth | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Perth | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Musselburgh | 2 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength96%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 10/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 20/03/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 14/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |