Magnolia
7yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 108
Perth · Bet With The Dewhurst Ring Handicap Hurdle · 2m 47y
#5
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Cartmel | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Perth | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Perth | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Musselburgh | 2 | 12th | 10th | +2 |
| 2026-02-09 | Catterick | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Kelso | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/11/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 29/12/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 09/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 20/03/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |