8
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4yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 107
Perth · Bet With The Dewhurst Ring Handicap Hurdle · 2m 47y
#6
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Perth | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kilbeggan | ? | 10th | 15th | −4 |
| 2026-04-18 | Bellewstown | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Limerick | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
Delivery trend -7.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 31/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.26 |
| 15/05/2026 | 10th | 11/8 | 93% | 31% | -0.62 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |