Boston Rover
7yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 133
Perth · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow David Whitaker Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 180y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 3 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Killarney | 1 | +1 | ||
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | 1 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Limerick | 1 | +1 | ||
| 2025-10-04 | Gowran Park | BHA125 | 1st | 14th | −11 |
| 2025-08-23 | Killarney | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2025-06-09 | Roscommon | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2024 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 02/11/2024 | 4th | 100/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 21/11/2024 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 15/12/2024 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 22/05/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 09/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 69% | +0.64 |