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7

Breizh River

8yo Gelding · 10-10 · OR 131

Perth · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow David Whitaker Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 180y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Front runner who gained a third win since joining Tristan Davidson with a game display at Cartmel (21f) in June. Subsequently ran a cracker when third of 13 in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen (21f, good to firm) in July. Well in the mix again in a headgear change off an unchanged mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength3%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 29/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 117 · 2m4f19y Goo 165 · below its mark29/11/2025 · OR 117 par29/114OR 1172 @ Musselburgh 01/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 115 · 2m4f68y GS 143 · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 115 par3 @ Kelso 28/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 119 · 2m1f14y Goo 157 · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 119 par28/023OR 1192 @ Carlisle 22/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 119 · 2m3f210y Goo 165 · below its mark22/03/2026 · OR 119 par4 @ Kelso 20/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 118 · 2m5f133y Goo 166 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 118 par20/044OR 1183 @ Aintree 15/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 123 · 2m3f200y Gd 159 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 123 par2 @ Perth 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 123 · 2m7f180y Gd 142 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 123 par7/062OR 1232 @ Cartmel 28/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 127 · 2m5f34y Goo 165 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 127 par1 @ Market Rasen 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 131 · 2m5f89y Gd 156 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 131 par18/071OR 131projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Market Rasen13rd2nd+1
2026-06-28Cartmel21st1st0
2026-06-07Perth22nd2nd0
2026-05-15Aintree33rd4th−1
2026-04-20Kelso41st3rd−2
2026-03-22Carlisle25th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/1122/037/0618/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength67%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/11/20253rd10/147%78%+0.30
01/01/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
28/02/20262nd9/276%86%+0.09
22/03/20265th11/271%67%-0.04
20/04/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
15/05/20263rd2/189%75%-0.14
07/06/20262nd10/382%89%+0.06
28/06/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
18/07/20263rd6/168%83%+0.15