8
Caughtinyourtrance
7yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 127
Perth · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow David Whitaker Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 180y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength1%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Cartmel | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Cartmel | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Cartmel | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-27 | Cartmel | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Cartmel | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Ayr | 2 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength21%
Delivery trend -7.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |