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6

El Rio

9yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 132

Perth · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow David Whitaker Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 180y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved switched to fences in 2024/25, winning 3 of his 5 starts. Off (reportedly struck into) since a reappearance third in handicap chase at Market Rasen (21f, good) 12 months ago. This likeable front runner is capable fresh but this is still no easy ask.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength7%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Ascot 02/04/2023 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 2m3f58y Sft 1602/0434 @ Kempton 13/11/2023 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 2m5f Goo 1614 @ Huntingdon 25/03/2024 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 121 · 2m4f145y Goo 169 · below its mark25/03/2024 · OR 121 par25/034OR 1214 @ Huntingdon 08/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 116 · 2m3f189y Gd 168 · beat its mark08/10/2024 · OR 116 par3 @ Sandown 10/11/2024 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 122 · 2m4f10y Gd 167 · beat its mark10/11/2024 · OR 122 par10/113OR 1223 @ Kempton 26/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 128 · 2m4f110y Goo 162 · below its mark26/12/2024 · OR 128 par3 @ Kempton 07/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 128 · 2m4f110y Goo 156 · beat its mark07/02/2025 · OR 128 par7/023OR 1283 @ Huntingdon 02/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 135 · 2m3f189y Goo 164 · below its mark02/03/2025 · OR 135 par3 @ Market Rasen 27/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 135 · 2m5f89y Gd 165 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 135 par27/093OR 135projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-09-27Market Rasen33rd4th−1
2025-03-02Huntingdon33rd4th−1
2025-02-07Kempton31st2nd−1
2024-12-26Kempton33rd4th−1
2024-11-10Sandown31st2nd−1
2024-10-08Huntingdon41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/048/107/0227/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength33%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/04/20231st2/189%100%+0.11
13/11/20237th9/488%50%-0.38
25/03/20246th13/266%17%-0.49
08/10/20241st7/163%100%+0.37
10/11/20241st5/287%100%+0.13
26/12/20243rd11/142%71%+0.29
07/02/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
02/03/20253rd5/493%60%-0.33
27/09/20253rd11/486%60%-0.26