3
Etalon
9yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 143
Perth · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow David Whitaker Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 180y
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Newton Abbot | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Kempton | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Ascot | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Ascot | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Newbury | 3 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Fontwell | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 23/04/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 17/05/2025 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 29/11/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 17/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |