4
Tamarind Bay
6yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 137
Perth · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow David Whitaker Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 180y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
71%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Bangor-on-Dee | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | 3 | −1 | ||
| 2026-06-28 | Uttoxeter | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Stratford | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-31 | Newcastle | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Doncaster | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 3rd | 85/40 | 89% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 19/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 86% | +0.44 |
| 31/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |