The Real Whacker
10yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 149
Perth · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow David Whitaker Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 180y
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Perth | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Aintree | 1 | +1 | ||
| 2026-01-01 | Cheltenham | 1 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-11-01 | Wetherby | 1 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-09-25 | Perth | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-04-03 | Aintree | 1 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2024 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 02/11/2024 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 26/12/2024 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 14/03/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/04/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 01/01/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |