2
Burning It Up
6yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 93
Perth · Thank You To Kinneston Owners Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 20y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-10 | Ayr | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-27 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Ayr | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Kelso | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-21 | Perth | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Perth | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%
Delivery trend -11.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/2024 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 20/01/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 14/02/2025 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 25/04/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 91% | +0.38 |
| 25/09/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 02/01/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 61% | +0.45 |
| 27/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 10/02/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |