Hawkseye View
7yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 89
Perth · Thank You To Kinneston Owners Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 20y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Carlisle | 2 | 10th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-03-14 | Newcastle | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-03 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Carlisle | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 11/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 26/12/2025 | 5th | 16/5 | 83% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 16/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 03/03/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 22/03/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 07/09/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |