6
Wearelongterm
9yo Gelding · 10-9 · OR 81
Perth · Thank You To Kinneston Owners Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 20y
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Cartmel | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-20 | Cartmel | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Cartmel | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-15 | Musselburgh | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Musselburgh | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-08 | Musselburgh | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength20%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 27/06/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 21/07/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 08/12/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 15/02/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |