1

Wherearethejudges

6yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 100

Perth · Thank You To Kinneston Owners Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 20y

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made the frame in a point and showed a bit on hurdles debut in November. Well held both starts during the winter and switches to a handicap for chasing debut/ reappearance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move1
Strength45%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Carlisle 30/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 2m3f61y Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS30/1144 @ Ayr 02/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 2m4f100y Sft 160 · HIGHER CLASS2/014projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-02-16Carlisle4+1
2026-01-02Ayr48th7th+1
2025-11-30Carlisle45th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/112/01
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%

Delivery trend -33.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/11/20255th50/10%64%+0.64
02/01/20268th100/10%30%+0.30