12
Autumn Getaway
5yo Mare · 10-5 · OR 69
Perth · Nairn's Oatcakes Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 207y
#12
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength56%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Hexham | 3 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-25 | Cartmel | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Hexham | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-27 | Newcastle | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-14 | Hexham | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength40%
Delivery trend +7.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/01/2026 | 6th | 200/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 150/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |