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2

Fairly Fulling

8yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 90

Perth · Nairn's Oatcakes Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 207y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Belatedly off the mark in a 15-runner handicap at Newcastle (2½m) in March and added to his tally when seeing off 9 rivals over 2½m here in July. Raised 6 lb for that and isn't sure to be as effective back at 3m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Perth 24/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 84 · 2m47y Goo 152 · below its mark24/04/2025 · OR 84 par24/045OR 845 @ Sedgefield 30/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 79 · 2m178y Gd 144 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 79 par5 @ Newcastle 30/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 79 · 2m190y Goo 148 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 79 par30/105OR 795 @ Sedgefield 13/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 78 · 2m3f188y Sft 149 · beat its mark13/11/2025 · OR 78 par5 @ Sedgefield 05/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 79 · 2m5f34y Sft 146 · below its mark05/12/2025 · OR 79 par5/125OR 795 @ Sedgefield 26/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 78 · 2m3f188y GS 148 · beat its mark26/12/2025 · OR 78 par5 @ Newcastle 14/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 77 · 2m4f62y Goo 145 · beat its mark14/03/2026 · OR 77 par14/035OR 775 @ Southwell 09/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 84 · 3m60y Goo 155 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 84 par5 @ Perth 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 84 · 2m4f35y Gd 153 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 84 par2/075OR 84projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-02Perth51st1st0
2026-06-09Southwell54th4th0
2026-05-19Hexham50
2026-03-14Newcastle51st1st0
2025-12-26Sedgefield54th4th0
2025-12-05Sedgefield54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0413/1114/032/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/04/20257th66/10%57%+0.57
30/09/20254th5/287%70%-0.17
30/10/20257th11/486%40%-0.46
13/11/20252nd13/266%89%+0.23
05/12/20254th9/488%40%-0.48
26/12/20254th4/179%57%-0.22
14/03/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
09/06/20264th14/126%73%+0.46
02/07/20261st6/168%100%+0.32