IvyArcIvyArc
5

Forest Spirit

5yo Mare · 11-2 · OR 84

Perth · Nairn's Oatcakes Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 207y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

67%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Looked suited by the step up in trip when close second of 11 in 23f Worcester handicap 13 days ago. Should go well again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Worcester 15/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 2m GS 149 · HIGHER CLASS15/0944 @ Worcester 26/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 2m4f Gd 148 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Ffos Las 16/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 86 · 2m4f Gd 147 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 86 par16/105OR 865 @ Ffos Las 21/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 83 · 2m4f Goo 153 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 83 par5 @ Ffos Las 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 81 · 2m4f GS 155 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 81 par20/055OR 815 @ Cartmel 26/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 82 · 2m6f31y Gd 150 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Market Rasen 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 81 · 2m125y Gd 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 81 par18/074OR 815 @ Worcester 23/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 79 · 2m4f Gd 147 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 79 par5 @ Worcester 10/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 79 · 2m7f Gd 154 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 79 par10/095OR 79projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Worcester52nd2nd0
2026-08-23Worcester53rd3rd0
2026-07-18Market Rasen44th3rd+1
2026-06-26Cartmel57th7th0
2026-05-20Ffos Las52nd2nd0
2026-04-21Ffos Las53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0921/0418/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength74%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/09/20259th125/10%33%+0.33
26/09/20257th200/10%40%+0.40
16/10/20255th40/10%20%+0.20
21/04/20263rd25/10%67%+0.67
20/05/20262nd11/486%83%-0.02
26/06/20267th9/153%25%-0.28
18/07/20264th7/163%0%-0.63
23/08/20263rd20/10%83%+0.83
10/09/20262nd3/184%90%+0.06