Fortunes Dawn
7yo Mare · 10-8 · OR 76
Perth · Nairn's Oatcakes Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 207y
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Cartmel | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Perth | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hexham | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Cartmel | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/06/2026 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 250/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 29/08/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |