IvyArcIvyArc
3

Les's Destiny Star

7yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 89

Perth · Nairn's Oatcakes Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 207y

#7

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Inconsistent for Ben Pauling. Made a respectable start for new yard when sixth of 9 at Cartmel (2¾m, good) in July but wouldn't be sure to build on it.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Doncaster 28/01/2024 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 2m128y Goo 15828/0155 @ Warwick 10/03/2024 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 2m Sft 1635 @ Warwick 09/03/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 2m Goo 1639/0353 @ Lingfield 11/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 2m3f110y GS 154 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Doncaster 23/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 2m3f88y Sft 164 · HIGHER CLASS23/0145 @ Doncaster 27/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 99 · 3m84y Goo 163 · below its mark27/02/2026 · OR 99 par5 @ Ffos Las 12/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 95 · 2m7f191y Goo 163 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 95 par12/045OR 955 @ Cartmel 20/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 92 · 2m6f31y Gd 160 · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 92 par20/075OR 92projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-20Cartmel56th6th0
2026-06-11Worcester50
2026-05-05Ffos Las50
2026-04-12Ffos Las53rd3rd0
2026-02-27Doncaster54th4th0
2026-01-23Doncaster48th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0111/1112/0420/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength45%

Delivery trend +7.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/01/20241st6/594%100%+0.06
10/03/20242nd15/890%91%+0.01
09/03/202513th11/142%8%-0.34
11/11/20254th13/266%40%-0.26
23/01/20268th40/10%42%+0.42
27/02/20264th16/116%50%+0.34
12/04/20263rd17/255%85%+0.29
20/07/20266th22/10%38%+0.38