10
Luckie Devil
6yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 73
Perth · Nairn's Oatcakes Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 207y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength35%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 5 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Perth | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-02-23 | Ayr | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-02-05 | Doncaster | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-01-13 | Ayr | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2025-05-07 | Kelso | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-03-03 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength22%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 07/05/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 02/07/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |