4
Masterminding
7yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 86
Perth · Nairn's Oatcakes Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 207y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength57%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Cartmel | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Cartmel | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Cartmel | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Cartmel | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Musselburgh | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-10-30 | Newcastle | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/2024 | 9th | 250/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/09/2025 | 5th | 250/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 05/10/2025 | 6th | 150/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 30/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 22/12/2025 | 6th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 73% | +0.31 |