3
Danefield
10yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 81
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -12.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 05/11/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 19/11/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |