6
He's On The Fly
9yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 76
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 02/07/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 15/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 02/09/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 22/09/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |