5
Lightning Charlie
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 79
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 29/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 23/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |