5
Caparbia
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 67
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-12-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 08/09/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 24/12/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 17/01/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 02/08/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |