Manon

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 64

Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

49%

Place Prob

34%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-20	Penn National	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-08-04	Presque Isle Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-21	Presque Isle Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-23	Presque Isle Downs	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +15.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/06/2026	5th	14/1	26%	20%	-0.06
21/07/2026	3rd	6/1	68%	71%	+0.03
04/08/2026	3rd	6/1	68%	60%	-0.08
20/08/2026	5th	20/1	0%	50%	+0.50