IvyArcIvyArc
5

Lost In The Fight

2yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 60

Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Woodbine 14/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f110y 12114/06C6C6 @ Ellis Park 05/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 56 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 56 par5/07C6OR 56C6 @ Ellis Park 19/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 52 · 1m Gd 119 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 52 par19/07C6OR 52C6 @ Kentucky Downs 30/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 52 · 6f110y 119 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 52 par30/08C6OR 52projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Kentucky Downs?11th11th0
2026-07-19Ellis Park?8th8th0
2026-07-05Ellis Park?10th10th0
2026-06-14Woodbine?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/065/0719/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength66%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/20267th33/10%14%+0.14
05/07/202610th40/10%10%+0.10
19/07/20268th40/10%13%+0.13
30/08/202611th50/10%9%+0.09