1
Courageous Ari
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 67
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 15/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 23/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 14/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |