6
Shaunnasaprilfool
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 65
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |