4
Sparkling Silver
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 72
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Assiniboia Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 23/07/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |
| 03/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 12/07/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |