5
Burn It All
5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 45
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-06-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 08/05/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/06/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 29/06/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 22/07/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |