7
Collective Nation
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 63
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/07/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 17/12/2025 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |