2
Kelly's Into Luck
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 62
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength49%
Delivery trend +10.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |