Name Dropper
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 73
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-08-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 26/08/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 11/05/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 23/06/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |