3
New Diamond
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 58
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength26%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 28/10/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 12/11/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |