4
She's Lit
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 69
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
64%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 01/03/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 24/04/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 17/05/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |