Spoken Vow
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 68
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 22/09/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 06/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 25% | -0.65 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/08/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |