Elfuegomasbrilante
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 79
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 27/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/04/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 45% | -0.15 |
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 01/09/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 13% | -0.69 |