3
Gun Policy
3yo Colt · 8-5 · OR 81
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength68%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 03/05/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |