9
Marinara Sauced
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 72
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Hawthorne | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2024-10-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2024-09-30 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-09-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2024 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 14/08/2024 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 03/09/2024 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 16/09/2024 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 30/09/2024 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 09/10/2024 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 12/10/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |