1
Snovember
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 81
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |