Classic Nofty
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 94
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Penn National | ? | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 18/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |